地方政府债务、金融发展与FDI——基于空间计量经济模型的实证分析

Local Government Debt,Financial Development and FDI:An Empirical Research Based on Spatial Econometrics

本文运用空间数据分析方法考察了地方政府债务、金融发展和FDI在我国各省域的空间分布格局,结果显示我国省域地方政府债务、金融发展和FDI均存在着显著的空间自相关性,三者在空间地理分布上呈现出明显的路径依赖特征,并在局部地区形成了不同的集聚区域。其中,地方政府债务和金融发展的高值集聚区多是我国FDI的低值集聚区,而地方政府债务和金融发展的低值集聚区多是我国FDI的高值集聚区。基于此,通过进一步构建空间滞后模型和空间误差模型实证分析了地方政府债务和金融发展对我国FDI的影响,研究表明地方政府债务和金融发展均对我国FDI具有显著的负向抑制效应,并且地方政府债务与金融发展之间还存在着交互作用,会加强彼此对FDI的负向影响。同时还发现,不同地区的地方政府债务和金融发展对FDI的影响程度存在显著差异:东部地区地方政府债务对FDI的负向抑制作用最大,西部地区金融发展对FDI的负向影响最大。

By using the spatial analysis method of the geography,this paper investigates the spatial distribution pattern of local government debt,financial development and FDI in China′s province level,the results show that the spatial autocorrelation of them is significant. Local government debt,financial development and FDI show clear path dependence characteristics in geographic distribution and form different agglomeration regions in local area. The high value agglomeration regions of local government debt and financial development are FDI′ low value agglomeration regions,and the low value agglomeration regions of local government debt and financial development are FDI′ high value agglomeration regions. Based on the analysis,this article studies the effects of local government debt and financial development on FDI by further building spatial lag model and spatial error model.Results show that local government debt and financial development both have significant negative effects on FDI,and the interaction between local government debt and financial development will strengthen the each other′ negative impact. It is also found that the impact of local government debt and financial development on FDI has significant differences in different regions. The negative influence of local government debt in eastern region and the negative inhibitory effect of financial development in western region is biggest.