中日海上危机管控机制研究

On China- Japan Maritime Crisis Management Mechanism

海上危机是影响中日关系的重要因素,特别是2010年的"撞船事件",2012年的"购岛事件"以及2014年的"更名事件"加大了中日海上危机爆发的可能性。目前围绕海上危机中日已就"海空联络机制"达成大部分共识,但主权领土争端与国家根本利益的矛盾,海洋战略与海洋权益的分歧,战略互信机制缺失与域外因素的牵制阻碍了"海空联络机制"的落实和运行。海上危机的存在客观上要求中日之间必须建立全面的危机管理机制,为此可根据危机发展的状况及演变趋势,按照事前、事中和事后的顺序分别从预警机制、应急机制和反馈机制三个方面入手,建立三位一体的动态管控体系,使海上危机的产生、发展和演变能在可控的范围内解决。

Maritime crises are an important factor influencing China- Japan relations. In particular,the 2010 Incident of Boat Collision,the 2012 Incident of Island Purchase and the 2014 Incident of Rename increased the chances of eruption of a China- Japan maritime crisis. Currently China and Japan have reached a consensus on most issues in terms of a 'sea and air liaison mechanism'around maritime crises,but the disputes of territorial sovereignty and the contradictions of national fundamental interests,disagreements over marine strategy and maritime rights and interests,a lack of strategic mutual trust mechanism,and the diversion of the outside factors impede the implement and operation of the 'sea and air liaison mechanism '. The existence of maritime crises requires objectively a comprehensive crisis management mechanism to be established between China and Japan. Therefore,based on the status of crisis development and the evolution trends,they can proceed with the three aspects,namely,early warning mechanism,emergency response mechanism,feedback mechanism,by following a sequence of before,during and after the incident,to establish a dynamic management and control system that integrate the three mechanisms to enable the emergence development,and evolution of maritime crises to be resolved within a controllable range.