全球治理模式转换的理论分析——以全球气候变化治理为例

A Theoretical Analysis of the Changes of Global Governance Pattern——A Case Study of Global Climate Change Governance

全球治理在不同议题领域的绩效差异根本上取决于特定议题领域的权势集中度和治理民主化水平的组合,由此产生了科学驱动的自下而上、大国主导的自上而下、集团主导的自上而下、社会驱动的自下而上等4种全球治理模式。需要指出的是,既定议题领域的治理进程往往遵循大致类同的演进路径,即从科学驱动逐渐发展到少数国家主导再到集团性主导,最后实现全面参与。尽管如此,权势转移、技术突破、参与意识和可用资源的变动等均可能打破这一线性演进逻辑,导致出现全球治理模式的回逆或循环发展。全球气候变化治理迄今为止的发展,完整再现了全球治理模式的演进和转换。全球治理模式演进和转换的内在逻辑为中国参与和塑造全球治理提供了有益参考,中国可依据议题领域的差异采取相应的战略举措,重点聚焦权势分配结构、谈判联盟和技术突破等方面。

The performance differences of global governance in different topic areas depends fundamentally on an combination of the levels of the concentration of power and influence and the democratization of governance on the specific topic areas,hence giving birth to the four kinds of global governance: a science- driven bottom- up,a power- dominated top- down,a group- dominated top- down,and a society- driven bottom- up governance. It should be noted that the governance processes in an established topic areas tend to approximately follow similar evolution path,that is,to move from a pattern driven by science gradually to a pattern dominated by a handful of countries and then dominated by groups,and finally a pattern in which full participation is achieved. Nevertheless,the power transfers,technology breakthroughs,changes in the sense of participation and in available resources may break the linear logic of evolution,resulting in reversal or circular development of global governance model.The development of global climate change governance to date has completely reproduced the evolution and transformation of global governance model. The inherent logic of the evolution and transformation of global governance model provide a useful reference for China to participate and shape the global governance. China can take appropriate strategic initiatives based on the differences in topic areas,focusing on the aspects such as the distribution structure of power and influence,negotiating alliances,technological breakthroughs.