南非取消对华螺栓螺母反倾销税的可能效应研究——基于动态GTAP模型的一般均衡分析

Effect of South Africa's Cancellation of Bolt and Nut Anti-dumping Duties on China: A General Equilibrium Analysis Based on Dynamic GTAP Model

自1999年南非就开始对中国螺栓螺母征收反倾销税,至今已达十余年之久。在第二次反倾销日落复审调查中,宁波金鼎紧固件有限公司在同行无一应诉的情况下积极应诉并取得成功,为全行业做出了榜样。基于此,本文利用动态GTAP模型对全行业成功应诉反倾销日落复审调查进行政策模拟,实证检验南非取消反倾销税对中国螺栓螺母产业及宏观经济的影响。结果发现:南非取消对华反倾销税会促进螺栓螺母的产出、国内销售和出口,同时还会改善中国贸易条件,提高总的社会福利。

South Africa has been imposing anti-dumping duties on bolt and nut of China since 1999, and for more than 10 years now. In the second anti-dumping sunset review investigation, Ningbo Jinding Fastening Piece Co., Ltd. responded to lawsuits actively and achieved success, which has set an example for the industry to respond to anti-dumping actively. Therefore, this paper uses dynamic GTAP model to simulate the whole industry＇s successful reaction to anti-dumping sunset review investigation, and analyzes the effect of South Africa＇s cancellation of antidumping duties on China＇s bolt and nut industry and macro-economy. The result of the study shows that South Africa＇s cancellation of anti-dumping duties on China will promote the output, domestic sales and export of the bolt and nut. Meanwhile, it will also improve the trade terms of China and enhance the overall social welfare.