中国制造业企业出口时机研究

Study on the Timing of Export in Chinese Manufacturing Enterprises

文章首次研究中国制造业企业如何通过从自身出口经验中学习以决定后续出口时机。构建一个出口学习模型，并使用2000～2007年合并后的中国工业企业和海关进出口数据检验模型命题，发现企业在积累出口经验以降低固定成本和获取潜在出口收入之间权衡，以决定出口的时机和顺序。生产率高的企业不仅从成立到首次出口所需要的时间更短，且后续进入不同国际市场的时间间隔也更短。生产率高的企业先进入需求规模更大的国际市场以获取高的潜在收入，生产率较低的企业则选择先进入需求规模相对较小的国际市场以积累经验。中国到出1：7目的地的运输成本越高，则该目的地在企业的出口次序中排名越靠后。

We first study how Chinese manufacturing enterprises decide the timing of their entry towards international market through export experience. We build an export learning model. By merging the Chinese industrial enterprises database and Chinese customs import and export database in 2000 ~ 2007,we test the model's propositions and find out that the enterprises weight export experience to reduce the fixed costs with obtaining potential export earnings,then decide the timing and order of export. Enterprises with higher productivity need shorter time not only from the establishment to export for the first time,but also the subsequent entry into different international markets. Meanwhile,enterprises with higher productivity enter the international market of larger size earlier in order to obtain high potential export income,enterprises with lower productivity choose to enter the internationalmarket of relatively small size in order to accumulate experience. Finally,the longer the transportation distance is,the more disadvantaged the the country of destination in the export order of the enterprise is.