摘要
以风电场的出力作为研究对象,考虑风速的随机性和风电机组的随机投产、故障状态及降额状态等因素对风电场出力的影响,基于蒙特卡洛方法建立风电场多状态出力的概率模型,并给出评估流程。结合实际算例,在Matlab中编写程序对风电场的多状态出力进行概率性评估。算例分析表明,所建模型能对风电场的出力进行有效评估,比传统的三状态工作模型具有更好的适用性。
Taking the output of wind farm as the research object, the effect of randomness of wind speed, random production of wind turbine, fault state and derating state on the output of wind farm were considered, the probability model of multi-state output of wind farm was set up based on the Monte-Carlo method. The evaluation process was also given. Combined with actual examples, the probabilistic assessment for multi-state output of wind farm was carried out by programming in Matlab. The example analyses show that the model can effectively assess the output of wind farm, which has better applicability than the traditional three-state model.
出处
《太阳能学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第6期1611-1616,共6页
Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica
基金
国家高技术研究发展(863)计划(2012AA050213)
国家自然科学基金(51177096)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(13CX02101A)
国网重庆市电力公司科技项目(KJ[2013]94)
关键词
风电场
随机投产
蒙特卡洛方法
多状态出力
概率性评估
wind farm
random production
Monte-Carlo method
multi-state output
probabilistic assessment
