名义账户制是我国基本养老保险制度改革的良方吗?

Is Notional Defined Contribution Scheme the Right Way to Reform China's Basic Pension System?

由于个人账户"空账"问题长期未能得到合理解决,我国基本养老保险制度改革处于进退两难的境地。一些学者建议我国实行名义账户制,引发了较大争议。本文结合基本养老保险制度的目标,对"统账结合"模式与名义账户制进行了分析与反思,认为"统账结合"模式的优势在于分散不同养老保险制度的风险,并且我国政府有能力做实个人账户,实现基本养老保险基金的保值增值;名义账户制不能够真正应对我国人口老龄化风险,且缺乏收入再分配作用,并不是我国基本养老保险制度改革的良方。最后,本文对完善我国基本养老保险制度改革提出了政策建议。

China has adopted structural pension reform since 1990s, from a purely pay-as-you-go system to a mixed system called the combination of social pool and individual accounts. The social pool still runs on a pay-asyou-go basis and is financed by employers. Individual accounts are designed to be fully funded and financed by con- tributions from employees. It is generally known that the implicit pension debt will become explicit during the transition process from pay-as-you-go to a fully or partly funded system. At the beginning, the Chinese authorities overlooked the problem of transition cost and pinned their hopes on the social pool fund to digest it. It is pity that the deficit of the social pool fund kept expanding. In order to ensure the release of pension benefits, local governments had to use the money in the individual accounts to finance deficits in the social pool, which led to ＂empty individual accounts＂. Due to all kinds of reasons, especially the financial pressure of local governments, the problem of empty individual account has not been reasonably resolved for a long time. If this problem can＇ t be resolved, the reform of China＇ s basic pension system will be doomed to failure. After more than 20 years pension reform, the policy makers are put in a tight spot again. How to reform China＇ s basic pension system becomes a hot public topic in recent years. While,it is difficult to reach a consensus about pension reform because of different perspectives held by scholars and researchers. Some scholars advocate that China should adopt notional defined contribution （NDC） scheme. Generally speaking,the NDC scheme runs on a pay-as-you-go basis but mimics a funded defined contribution （DC） plan. Workers continue to pay for today＇ s pensioners but their contributions are not accumulated and invested in financial market instruments. In fact, their contributions are credited to notional accounts,which get a nominal rate of return broadly linked to some factors such as demographic change and earnings growth. When they retire their pension benefits are based on the notional capital they have accumulated, which is turned into annuities through a formula based on life expectancy at their retirement age. The proponents of NDC argue that adopting NDC scheme in China can avoid creating additional burdens for future workers and bypass the problem of transition cost. They insist that local governments don＇ t have the financial capability to fund the empty individual account. What＇ s more, NDC scheme has more advantage in the portability of pension rights. Combining the goals of basic pension system, this paper makes analysis and reflection on NDC scheme and the combination of social pool and individual accounts. This paper points out that adopting NDC scheme in China may face the following challenges. First, it is hard to stipulate the proper nominal rate of return, though feasible in theory, which provides great space for political manipulation. Secondly, the main disadvantage of NDC is lack of redistribution, which will harm the interests of low income groups and cause poverty in old age. Thirdly, NDC may alleviate the financial stress of local governments in a short time, but it can＇ t address the problems that population aging brings if nominal rate of return will not be cut. Last but not least, NDC may drastically undermine people＇ s confidence about pension reform. Further, this paper argues that the advantage of the combination of social pool and individual accounts lies in risk diversification and Chinese government has the financial capacity to fund individual ac- counts considering the assets managed by National Council for Social Security Fund and the huge amounts of state owned enterprises. In summary, NDC scheme can＇ t truly deal with the risk of population aging and is lack of income redistribution, which is not the right way to reform China＇ s basic pension system. This paper believes that it is a wise choice for China to fund individual accounts and consummate the combination of social pool and individual accounts. Some relevant policy recommendations are put forward to improve China＇ s basic pension reform, such as improving the labor productivity of future workers, decreasing the growth rate of pension benefits and raising the ceiling of contribu- tion wage, etc.