科研人才跨国流失的安全监测与预警机制研究——基于模糊综合评判法和CART的考察

Research in Safety Monitoring and Pre-warning Mechanism of Transnational Drain of Scientific Personnel——Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation and CART Survey

文本尝试采用复合型预警机制破解科研人才跨国流失预警难题,首先运用模糊综合评判法,对科研人才跨国流失的总体态势进行评估,得到"黄灯"结果,表明目前流失态势已出现危险信号,并伴有恶化的可能,相关部门应从宏观层面上及早介入人才外流的防控与调节。进而以青岛某科研机构为样本进行连续数据追踪采集,说明科研机构可采用CART分类决策树构建预警机制模型,从而对科研人才个体的跨国流失概率进行预判与精准管理。复合型预警机制的构建思路提示,国家层面的顺势引导与组织层面的强力牵引应共筑合力,双管齐下,为进行卓有成效的人才保留提供明确对象与有效时机,以期实现我国科研人才跨国流动的安全高效。

The essay writers attempt to adopt compound-type pre-warning mechanism to work out the problem of transnational drain of scientific professionals by applying fuzzy comprehensive judgment for assessment of transnational loss of professionals as a whole to get ＂yellow light＂result,indicating current drain situation takes on dangerous signal accompanied by worsening possibility,for which relevant departments should involve in prevention and control of brain-drain at earlier date from macro-dimension. Further,with a an agency of science and technology in Qingdao as a sample to track and gather data nonstop,indicating that scientific agencies can adopt CART classified decision to construct pre-warning mechanism model so as to make a prognosis and accurate management of transnational drain probability for scientific individuals. The construction idea of compound pre-warning mechanism hints that the helpful guide at national dimension and powerful traction at organization dimension should join forces to offer definite object and valid opportunity for fruitful reservation of talents and realize safety and efficiency of transnational migration for our scientific professionals.