摘要
针对输变电工程施工安全评估的特点,全面考虑风险指标定性概念模糊性和不确定性,研究一种定性分析与客观计算相结合的评价方法。首先以输变电工程的施工过程为研究对象,对影响输变电工程施工阶段的各风险因素进行归类分析,并结合4M1E理论建立风险指标体系,为避免传统模型权重分配的单一性,引入三角模糊数进行主客观综合赋权来确定各指标权重;然后结合云模型本身不确定性推理特性兼具定性、定量分析的特点,构建基于三角模糊数的云模型进行评估;最后通过Matlab仿真分析表明研究方法的可行性和适用性。
According to the characteristics of safety assessment of power transmission project construction, taking full ac- count of the fuzziness and uncertainty of risk indicators qualitative concept, combined with a qualitative analysis with the objective calculation method, the paper studied the power transmission project in the construction process. The risk factors affecting the power transmission project construction stage were classified and analyzed and the risk index system was estab- lished according to the theory of 4M1E, in order to avoid the single traditional model. Triangular fuzzy number was intro- duced to combine subjective and objective weighting method to determine the weight of each index. Taking the features of ambiguity, qualitative and quantitative analysis of the cloud model itself, the paper constructed the cloud model based on triangular fuzzy number to carry out assessment. Finally, the feasibility and applicability of the method are demonstrated by Matlab simulation.
出处
《科技管理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第13期53-57,71,共6页
Science and Technology Management Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"工程项目团队认知对团队绩效的作用机制研究"(71271065)
关键词
输变电工程
云模型
三角模糊数
安全评价
power transmission project
cloud model
triangular fuzzy number
security assessment
