台风致洪灾害的广义模糊熵模型研究

Generalized Fuzzy Entropy Model of Flood Disasters Caused by Typhoon

根据台风致洪灾害系统的复杂性、不确定性以及模糊性等特点,构造灾情指数与致灾源指数,建立基于模糊聚类下的灾害风险熵模型,讨论灾害风险熵与灾害的致灾源、灾情的相关程度;对灾害风险熵进行核密度估计,根据估计曲线的峰值讨论中小尺度灾害与极端灾害各自概率分布情况。通过研究灾情与各致灾源的Kullback-Leibler距离,讨论各灾情指标与致灾源分布贴近程度;运用三种不同的回归方法对台风致洪灾害的风险熵进行回归分析,建立基于支持向量机的非线性组合回归模型。结果表明,灾害风险熵与致灾源因子、灾情有较高的负相关性;所构建的组合回归模型的回归效果较三个单项回归有显著提高。

According to the characteristics of the flood disaster system caused by typhoon,such as the complexity,uncertainty and fuzziness etc,structuring the disaster hazard index and source index,establish the model of disaster risk entropy based on fuzzy clustering.Discuss the related degree of disaster risk entropy with the disaster hazard index and source index.Take the estimation of disaster risk entropy used kernel density,according to the estimated curve peak research with the probability distribution in small and medium scale disasters and extreme disaster.By studying the situation and source of disaster with their Kullback-Leibler distance,explore the close distribution of disaster and the source,and build a nonlinear regression model based on support vector machine.The results show that disaster risk entropy have high negative correlation with both hazard index and source index.The results show that the conclusion of combined regression model is more accurate than Three single regression models.