汉江上游流域洪水频率区域分析研究

Regional Flood Frequency Analysis in the Upstream Han River

本文采用洪水频率区域综合分析的指标洪水法,以汉江流域上游16个水文站点的年最大洪水系列为研究对象,通过模糊聚类法进行水文相似分析,并在不一致性检查和均匀性检验的基础上,选择P-III型分布为区域增长曲线线型,利用线性矩法估计参数,开展了洪水频率区域分析案例研究。结果表明,对于基础资料短缺和无资料地区,洪水频率区域分析是提高设计洪水成果精度的有效途径,可以满足工程实践对稀遇设计洪水的现实需求,建议进一步推广应用。

The index-flood method was discussed and applied to regional flood frequency analysis in the upstream Han River based on the annual maximum flood series from 16 hydrological stations. The fuzzy clustering method was used for identifying hydrological homogeneous region, which was further evaluated by the discordancy measure and homogeneity testing. Then the P-Ill distribution was selected as regional growth curve and the L-moment method was adopted to estimate associated parameters. The results show that regional flood frequency analysis is an effective way to estimate flood quantiles and can satisfy engineering design requirement in a data sparse region and ungauged basin. Therefore, it is suggested to be applied more widely in practice.