2005-2014年江苏省盐城市沿海滩涂地区肾综合征出血热时空分布特征及影响因素研究

Spatial temporal distribution of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and related factors in coastal area of Yancheng,Jiangsu

目的探讨江苏省盐城市沿海滩涂地区肾综合征出血热(HFRS)时空分布特征,研究该病时空聚集性与气象因素、鼠类生物学特点等影响因素的相关性。方法收集整理盐城市沿海滩涂地区2005 2014年HFRS疫情、人口学和气象学资料,于2011年4月至2014年12月对上述地区鼠密度进行监测。用统计学方法分析HFRS疫情流行特征和时空聚集性。Pearson相关分析方法分析HFRS时空分布、鼠密度消长、气象参数变化的相关性。结果 2005 2014年盐城市沿海滩涂地区HFRS发病呈间歇性逐步升高,最高发病年份为2014年,发病率为2.83/10万,且呈现冬季高峰。HFRS发病地区以大丰、东台两个区域为主,大丰区域的海丰农场、上海农场、川东农场和东台区域的新曹农场为高发乡镇。10年间可能存在两个HFRS发病聚集区域,分别为2010年12月至2014年12月东台区域的新曹农场和2009年11月至2011年12月的大丰区域的上海农场、海丰农场。盐城市沿海滩涂地区优势鼠种为黑线姬鼠,构成比为89.19%。2011 2013年HFRS发病高峰与鼠密度高峰具有一致性,且发病高峰前均有一个气温、降雨量高峰。由Pearson相关分析可知,气温与HFRS发病率具有统计学相关性,其他气象因素及鼠密度与HFRS发病率无统计学相关。结论盐城市沿海滩涂地区存在HFRS疫区,且有时空聚集性,这与该地区存在传播HFRS的流行因素有关,应继续加强监测并采取有效措施予以防控。

Objective To understand the temporal spatial distribution of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome（ HFRS）,and the relationship between the temporal spatial clustering of HFRS and different factors,such as meteorological factors and rodent biological characteristics,in coastal area of Yancheng,Jiangsu province. Methods The incidence data,population data and meteorological data in coastal area of Yancheng from 2005 to 2014 were collected,and rodent density surveillance was conducted from April 2011 to December 2014. The temporal spatial distribution of HFRS were analyzed statistically. The relationship between the temporal spatial distribution of HFRS and the factors of rodent density and meteorology were evaluated with Pearson correlation analysis. Results The incidence of HFRS increased gradually from 2005 to 2014,which was highest in 2014（ 2. 83 / lakh）. The incidence peak of HFRS was in winter. HFRS mainly occurred in Dafeng,Dongtai. The incidences in Haifeng farm,Shanghai farm,Eastern Sichuan farm of Dafeng and in Xincao farm of Dongtai were high. Two clustering of HFRS cases might occurred from 2005 to 2014,which were in Xincao farm from December 2010 to December2014 and in Shanghai farm and Haifeng farm from November 2009 to December 2011. Apodemus agrarius was the predominant rodent species,accounting for 89. 19%. The incidence peak of HFRS was consistent with the density peak of rodents. Temperature and rainfall peaks were observed before each incidence peak of HFRS. Pearson correlation analysis indicated that only temperature was correlated with the incidence of HFRS. Conclusion The area with high HFRS incidenceexists in coastal area of Yancheng,it is necessary to strengthen the surveillance of HFRS in this area.