二孩政策、人口老龄化和财政社会福利支出预测被引量：5

Fertility,Population Ageing and Public Transfers on Social Welfares

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摘要最近出台的"二孩政策"旨在调整中国的人口结构,扭转人口老龄化趋势,减轻公共财政的福利支出压力。本文在三种不同的生育率假设下,通过建立人口模型,预测了到2050年公共财政在教育、养老和医疗卫生上的支出。预测结果显示,三项支出在2050年以前受生育率的影响很小。把劳动参与人口占劳动年龄人口的比重大幅提高,是解决短中期公共财政转移支付压力的有效途径。延迟退休年龄和降低养老及医疗保险的缴费比例是提高劳动参与率的必要措施。 The recent changes to the ＇ One Child Policy＇ in China aim to change the demographic structure, to ease the ageing trend and to reduce the pressure on fiscal transfers. This paper seeks to estimate the effect on public costs of education, pension and health by 2050 based on a demographic model with three fertility scenarios. The results indicate that the three aggregated public costs change slightly with fertility scenarios. A more effective way to deal with the short and medium fiscal pressure is to increase the formal labor force participation rate with a large extent. To achieve that, a higher pension age and a reduction in pension and medical insurance contribution rates may be necessary in order to delay retirement and reduce the effective tax wage that keeps people out of the formal sector.

作者鲁蓓

机构地区澳大利亚老龄化研究中心

出处《劳动经济研究》 2016年第3期103-118,共16页 Studies in Labor Economics

关键词财政支出教育养老医疗卫生人口生育率 fiscal expenditure, education, pension, health, population, fertility

分类号 C924.2 [社会学—人口学] F812.45 [经济管理—财政学]

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参考文献10

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