长三角港口体系的空间结构与演变趋势

Spatial Structure and Evolution Trends of Port System in Yangtze River Delta

运用分形方法对长三角港口体系2000年以来的空间规模结构维数和关联结构维数进行测算,并预测其未来演化趋势。通过研究发现:长三角港口体系的空间结构具有较强的垄断性,但总体上趋于优化和稳定;主要港口集中分布于线性空间的形态有利于港口间的相互作用,但对港口集疏运水平提出较高的要求;未来长三角港口体系的空间结构将处于稳定的状态。外部环境变化与内部竞合机制的交互作用是长三角港口体系空间结构形成和演变的基本动力机制。最后,提出长三角港口体系进一步发展的政策建议。

Using fractal method,the dimensions of the spatial structure and the correlation structure of the port system in Yangtze River Delta care measured with the data from year 2000 on,and its evolution trends in the future are forecasted.The study reveals;the port system of Yangtze River Delta possesses some monopoly in terms of spatial structure which is generally optimized and steady;the fact that the ports scattered in stripe space is good for interaction between ports,but it requires a collection and distribution system of higher standard;the spatial form of the port system in Yangtze River Delta will keep stable in the future;the interactions between external environment and internal mechanism of competition/cooperation are the main causes of forming and evolution of the port system structure.Suggestions concerning the policies for further development of the port system are also put forword.