房价上涨的结构性差异研究——基于土地供给的视角

Research on Structural Differences of Rising House Prices——Based on the View of Land Supply

利用中国2000-2009年282个地级及以上城市的面板数据,采用双重差分法和PSM-DID识别策略,从土地供给的角度研究区域房价上涨的结构性差异特征的成因。自2003年起,国家土地供给政策开始向中西部地区倾斜,减少了东部地区但增加了中西部地区的土地供给,这使得东部地区用地更为紧张,从而导致东部地区房价相对上涨较快。实证分析发现,控制住经济发展水平、人口规模、金融便利性和城镇化等因素的影响之后,偏向中西部的土地供给导致东部地区城市房价至少上涨了6.51%,表明区域土地供给差异导致房价上涨的结构性差异。

Based on the panel data of 282 cities during the period of 2000-2009 in China and employing difference-in-difference method and difference in difference -propensity score matching （ PSM-DID） ap-proach, this paper studies structural differences of rising house prices .The central government has reduced land supply in the eastern cities and increased supply in the middle western areas since 2003 .Land use is scarcer in eastern cities , which results house prices growing up relatively faster .Empirical studies show that the biased land policy leads to house prices of the eastern cities rise by at least 6.51%by controlling the level of economic development , population scale , financial convenience , urbanization and other factors , which shows that the structural difference of house prices rising is attributed to the difference of land supply .