低纬高原昆明市城市发展对降水的影响研究

Influence of Urban Development on Precipitation in Kunming on the Low Latitude Plateau

利用1964-2013年近50年的气象资料,选取低纬高原昆明市与其郊区进行了降水量的对比分析。结果表明,昆明市降水量近50年来略有下降,在空间上,昆明市的降水量高于郊区,呈现由昆明市向周边郊区递减的趋势,但是,向其下风向递减趋势不明显,甚至有增加的趋势。同时,采用灰色关联度分析法分析了影响昆明市降水的人文因子和自然因子及其之间的关联度,得出自然因素对昆明市降水量的影响最大的是相对湿度,人文因子对昆明市降水量的影响较大的是人口总量。

Based on the meteorological data of nearly 50 years from 1964 to 2013, this paper presented a contrastive analysis of precipitation between Kunming and its suburbs. The results showed that the precipitation in the recent 50 years in Kunming had declined slightly. In space, precipitation in Kunming was higher than its suburb with a diminishing trend from Kunming to suburbs. However the decline trend was not obvious in the downwind direction, which even showed an increasing trend. At the same time, Grey Correlation Analysis Method was used to analyze the correlation between human factors and natural factors which impacted the precipitation in Kunming. It could be found that among all natural factors the relative humidity has the greatest influences on the rainfall in Kunming while among Cultural factors the Total population was the one that influence most on the rainfall in Kunming.