湖南省耕地资源时空变化及预测分析

Spatial-temporal Changes and Predictive Analysis of Cultivated Land in Hunan Province

耕地资源对研究区域粮食安全和区域可持续发展有重要的指导意义。根据湖南省1996-2008年的耕地面积和社会经济等资料,对湖南省1996-2008年的耕地变化过程进行全面分析,揭示了湖南省13年来耕地变化的时空特征,分析了其变化的主要原因,并利用GM(1,1)模型对研究区域耕地的变化趋势进行预测分析。结果表明,1996-2008年湖南省人均耕地面积下降趋势明显,由1996年的0.061 5 hm2/人减少到2008年的0.055 4 hm2/人,耕地变化存在较大的空间差异,13年间耕地变化率最大的是湘西自治州,减少了1.096%,利用主成分分析法可知耕地面积变化驱动力主要在于人口增长、社会发展、农业科技进步三个方面。同时根据研究区域2011-2020年的耕地面积将继续呈下降趋势的预测,提出了加大耕地保护力度,实现耕地总量动态平衡的建议。

The cultivated land have an important guiding significance for the study of food security and regional sustainable development. Based on the 1996-2008 data of cultivated land＇s quantity and some other social economic factors, the change process of cultivated land from 1996 to 2008 in Hunan province was analyzed, the spatial-temporal characteristics of cultivated land＇s change were revealed, and the main reasons of this change was analyzed. Likewise, the trend of cultivated land＇s change in the study area was predicted with GM（1,1）model. The results showed that in 1996-2008, the per capita cultivated land in Hunan province decreased from 0.061 5 hm^2 to 0.055 4 hm^2, and the cultivated land＇s change have obvious spatial difference. The fastest decreased region in 13 years was Xiangxi autonomous continent, decreased 1.096%. With the principal component analysis, the driving forces of change of farmland quantity in Hunan province were identified as the development of economy, the advancement of science and technology, and the increase of population. Meanwhile, according to the predicted result that the cultivated land in the study area would continue to decrease from 2011 to 2020, the proposal of taking effective measures of cultivated land protection, to realize the dynamic balance of total arable land was put forward.