考虑风险关联的项目风险应对的案例决策分析方法

Case-based Decision Analysis Method for Project Risk Response Considering Correlations among Risks

针对考虑风险关联的项目风险应对策略选择问题,提出了一种案例决策分析方法。首先,将当前项目风险应对问题视为目标案例,并将收集到的一些相似项目风险应对案例视为历史案例,在此基础上,通过判断历史案例涉及的风险是否涵盖目标案例涉及风险来提取可用历史案例,并通过相似度计算及风险关联的处理来提取相似历史案例;然后,通过分析相似历史案例的风险应对策略与目标案例涉及风险的应对关系来进行风险应对策略的不适用性分析及修正,并形成针对目标案例的备选风险应对策略,进一步地,通过评价关于各备选风险应对策略的风险应对的成本和预期效果来对其进行优选。最后,通过一个实例分析说明了本文给出方法的可行性与有效性。

In order to solve the problem of selecting project risk response strategies considering correlations among risks, this paper proposes a case-based decision analysis method. First, the current project risk response problem is regarded as the target case, and the collected similar project risk response cases are regarded as the historical cases. On this basis, the available historical cases are retrieved through the judgment of whether risks involved in the historical cases cover that involved in the target case, and the similar historical cases are retrieved through calculations of similarities and handlings of correlations among risks. Then, the improper strategies are revised through the analysis of inapplicability between the strategies in the similar historical cases and the risks involved in the target case. Furthermore, candidate risk response strategies concerning the target case can be formed, and the selection of candidate risk response strategies is conducted through the evaluation of the strategies with respect to the cost and expected effect for project risk response. Finally, a case study is used to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the method proposed in this paper.