基于Logistic模型的上市公司表外会计舞弊影响因素

The Influence Factors of Off-balance Sheet Accounting Fraud of Listed Companies Based on the Logistic Model

会计信息在经济生活中的重要地位逐渐凸显,其真实性不仅能有效地稳定我国的经济秩序,而且与政府、投资者、债权人乃至普通公民息息相关。为研究我国上市公司的会计舞弊方式及其影响因素,本文以中国证券监督委员会近三年（2012~2014年）最新公布的行政处罚书为基础,选取30家上市公司表外舞弊案例为样本,并对样本进行整理筛选,并选取30家非舞弊的上市公司作为控制公司。通过运用对资产规模及其他具体因素的描述性统计分析方法,构建Logistic回归模型,从而对中国上市公司表外会计舞弊的方式、涉案人员以及影响因素进行了详细分析,实证研究结果表明,上市公司经营状况指标对表外会计舞弊产生显著影响,且对信息披露不真实这一形式的会计舞弊影响较大。在会计舞弊影响因素中,偿债能力、经营能力和资本构成对表外会计舞弊发生的概率显著,盈利能力则对表外会计舞弊的发生不起关键作用。

The accounting information becomes more and more prominent in the economic life, its authenticity can not only effectively stabilize economic order in our country, but also is closely related to the government, investors, creditors and even ordinary citizens. This paper selects 31 listed companies table fraud case as a sample and sorts them simultaneously. It also selects 30 non fraud listed companies as controlling corporation, on the basis of the latest administrative punishment book of the CSRC for nearly three years （the year 2012-2014）. The way of off-balance-sheet accounting fraud of China＇s listed companies, involving personnel and the influence factors are analyzed. The empirical results show that the operational indicator of listed companies have a significant impact on off-balance-sheet accounting fraud and have a great effect on the disclosure of false information in accounting fraud. In the influencing factors of accounting fraud, the occurrence probability of off-balance-sheet accounting fraud is significantly to debt paying ability, operation capacity and capital structure and profitability does not play a key role in off-balance sheet accounting fraud.