基于可拓云模型的配电网经济运行综合评价及灵敏度分析

Comprehensive evaluation and sensitivity analysis for economic operation of distribution network based on extension cloud theory

实现配电网经济高效运行是电力系统的重要目标,因此合理有效地对其经济运行进行评价具有理论和实际意义。针对配电网经济运行综合评估中等级划分边界信息具有模糊性和随机性,综合可拓学中物元理论可融合定量与定性分析的特点和云模型处理双重不确定性的优势,提出一种基于可拓云模型的配电网经济运行综合评价模型。建立配电网经济运行各等级划分标准界限的可拓云模型,并计算分析待评物元与所建立的可拓云模型的关联度。同时,采用极大熵准则改进区间层次分析法确定各指标综合权重,最终得到待评物元的综合评判向量,确定配电网经济运行等级。在此基础上,提出一种指标值灵敏度分析方法,为决策者提供各评价指标的改善顺序。最后,运用所提出的评价分析方法进行了算例仿真,仿真结果验证了其有效性与实用性。

The realization of economic and efficient operation of distribution network is an important target of power system,so it has theoretical and practical significances to evaluate the economic performance reasonably and effectively.In view of the problem of fuzziness and randomness in boundary information of comprehensive assessment for economic performance,taking advantages of the qualitative and quantitative analysis for the matter element theory and the uncertain reasoning characteristic of the cloud model,a comprehensive evaluation method for the economic operation of distribution network based on the extension cloud theory is put forward.Extension cloud model of boundary values is established and cloud correlation of the matter element to be evaluated is calculated.The maximum entropy criterion is used to improve interval AHP that is used to calculate index weights.Then,the comprehensive evaluation matrix material element to be evaluated is obtained to determine economic operation rating of the distribution network.On this basis,we propose an index value sensitivity analysis method to provide the order of the index improvement for decision-makers.Finally,the conclusive results of case analysis demonstrate the validity and effectiveness of the proposed method.