陕西关中地区旱涝演变规律和21世纪旱涝特点分析

The Drought and Flood Evolution Law in the Guanzhong Area and the Analyses of the Present Century's Drought and Flood Characteristics

基于关中地区1961-2014年降水资料,集成关中地区气象干旱和洪涝以及农业、水文旱涝的已有研究成果,利用线性趋势分析等统计方法,对关中地区旱涝现状和演变规律进行分析,结果显示:1近50多年关中地区旱涝变化总趋势为降水减少,气象干旱日数增多,强度增强,水文干旱、农业干旱趋于严重;2关中地区旱涝年代际差异明显,1990年代降水最少,气象干旱和水文、农业干旱最为严重,1980年代前期降水最多,洪涝最为严重;321世纪以来关中地区降水呈增多趋势,气象干旱日数减少,强度减弱,洪涝频次有所增加;4预计关中地区未来5年降水略增,洪涝频次可能增加。

Based on the 1961- 2014 precipitation data in Guanzhong area,integrated the existing research results of meteorological drought and flood,the drought and flood of agricultural and hydrology in Guanzhong area,the use of statistical methods of linear trend analysis of drought and flood in Guanzhong area,the status and evolution were analyzed,results showed that： 1 the general trend of drought and flood changes of nearly 50 years of Guanzhong area as less rainfall,the meteorological drought days the number,intensity,hydrological drought,agricultural drought tended to be serious. 2Drought and flood in Guanzhong area are significant differences in twentieth Century 90,the least rainfall,hydrological,meteorological drought and agricultural drought is the most serious,the early 80＇s the most precipitation,flood is the most serious. 3 since the beginning of this century in Guanzhong area showed an increasing trend in precipitation,meteorological drought days decreased,intensity,flood frequency increased. 4 5 years in the future is expected to Guanzhong area rainfall may increase slightly,flood frequency.