全球视野下中国科技投入规模演变态势分析与预测

Analysis and Forecasting on the Evolution Trend of Science and Technology Input Scale in China from Global Field

首先,分析了全球科技投入规模的变化趋势,总结了中国科技投入规模的分布结构与变化特征。其次,采用弹性系数法,评价了改革开放以来中国科技投入的经济增长贡献弹性系数;然后,对中国科技投入规模进行预测,结合全社会R&D经费支出变化趋势,采用GM(1,1)等维新息模型和趋势预测模型的组合预测模型,预测了"十三五"时期中国的全社会R&D经费支出。最后,提出了保障实现2020年中国科技发展预期目标的政策建议。研究结果表明,1991-2014年中国全社会R&D经费支出年均增长率高达21.5%,其中,1991—2001年中国R&D经费支出年均增长率达到21.3%,中国科技投入经济增长贡献弹性系数为1.47,2002—2012年中国R&D经费支出年均增长率为23.1%,中国科技投入经济增长贡献弹性系数为2.04。预计2020年中国全社会R&D经费支出将达到27 312亿元左右,中国有望从"世界科技大国"转变为"世界科技强国"。

Refer to the research literature at home and abroad ,the research results of science and technology input are re‐view ed .Based on it ,firstly ,the change trend of global input scale of science and technology is analyzed ,to find out the status of R＆amp;D activities of China in the world ,and conclude the distribution structure and characteristics of input scale of science and technology in China .Secondly ,the input scale＇s contribution to economic growth is evaluated with elastic coef‐ficient method after the reform and opening up .Thirdly ,input scale of science and technology is predicted in China .R＆amp;D spending in ＂thirteen five＂period is predicted with combination forecasting model of GM （1 ,1） model and trend prediction model ,combined with the natural development trend of R＆amp;D spending .Finally ,the policy suggestions of ensuring reali‐zing the anticipated goal of science and technology are given by 2020 .The results show that ,the average annual growth rate of R＆amp;D spending is 21 .5% in 1991 -2014 .The average annual growth rate of R＆amp;D spending is 21 .3% in 1991 -2001 ,and the elastic coefficient of R＆amp;D spending to economic growth contribution is 1 .47 .The average annual growth rate of R＆amp;D spending is 23 .1% in 2002 -2012 ,and the elastic coefficient of R＆amp;D spending to economic grow th contribu‐tion is 2 .04 .