“一带一路”与“季风计划”战略对接:有效政策选项抑或伪命题

Strategic Connectivity between Belt & Road Initiative and Project Mausam:Viable Policy Option or Untenable Proposition?

在"一带一路"与"季风计划"战略对接的问题上,深入分析相关现实因素可以发现,印度"季风计划"的相关局限性限制了中印"战略对接"的合作空间,其"门罗主义"和地缘政治焦虑侵蚀着双方"战略对接"的互信基础,其区域战略中的"对冲策略"和"战略模糊"手段弱化了两国"战略对接"的现实动力,其"东向行动政策"、"制衡力量"角色和相关区域作为,势必削弱和黯淡"战略对接"的预期功能和发展前景。基于印度方面的战略图谋和政策算计,现阶段在地区层面上讨论中印战略对接或是个伪命题,"一带一路"与印度"季风计划"的战略对接难以构成有效政策选项。

Carefully considering a number of practical elements related to building strategic connectivity between Belt & Road Initiative and Project Mausam reveals that the restrictiveness of India's Project Mausam severely limits space for Sino- Indian cooperation in linking the two initiatives. In particular the Project's Monroe Doctrine style thinking and its deep seated geopolitical anxieties have seriously eroded the mutual trust which would otherwise serve as a foundation for building strategic connections between the initiatives. What is more, the Project's regional hedging strategy and its strategic ambiguity further weakenpractical motivations for the two states to attempt linkages. Lastly, the 'Look East Policy'and its intent to create a regional 'power balance'dim all prospects and expectations for strategic connectivity. Largely due to India's strategic ambitions and its policy calculations, at present any proposal of strategic connectivity between China and India at the regional level would seem to be untenable. In sum, strategic connectivity between Belt & Road Initiative and India's Project Mausam does not represent a viable policy option.