基于GIS的山西省暴雪灾害风险区划研究

Risk Regionalization of Blizzard Disaster in Shanxi Province Based on GIS

为了降低暴雪灾害的影响,利用山西省108个县市1980—2012年的年均暴雪日数、≥5 cm的年均积雪深度日数、最大积雪深度等统计量资料,山西省DEM高程资料和地理信息资料,人口密度、人均GDP、耕地面积比、公路密度等社会经济资料,对山西省暴雪的气候特征进行研究,并从暴雪灾害致灾因子的危险性、孕灾环境的敏感性、承灾体的易损性和防灾减灾能力4个因子的风险区划入手,进行了山西省暴雪灾害综合风险区划。研究结果表明:近33年山西暴雪站次序列主要由4年和3年周期变化波动迭加;各月平均暴雪站次数是3月份最多,4月和11月次之;暴雪日数具有自西北向东南逐渐增多的空间分布特征;长治、晋城、阳泉、晋中等地市的暴雪灾害风险等级最高;运城、临汾南部、吕梁北部及大同西南部暴雪灾害的风险等级最低;对综合风险区划等级结果与历史灾情数据比对以及应用近10年山西省暴雪灾害进行检验,表明风险区划结果具有较高的合理性,可为山西暴雪灾害的防御和评估提供科学依据。

In order to reduce the impact of blizzard disaster, the climatic characteristics of blizzard in ShanxiProvince was studied. The comprehensive risk regionalization of blizzard disaster was conducted from the riskof hazard factors, the sensitivity of disaster inducing environment, the vulnerability of disaster bearing bodyand the ability of disaster prevention and mitigation with the data of the average annual day numbers ofblizzard, the snow depth more than 5 cm, the maximum snow depth data from 1980 to 2012 of 108 counties andcities, and the DEM altimetric data, geographic information data and social economy data like populationdensity, per capita GDP, cultivated land ratio and road density data. The results showed that： the sequence ofblizzard stations in recent 33 years in Shanxi was mainly composed of two waves whose periods were four andthree years respectively; the monthly average number of blizzard stations in March was the largest, followed bythat in April and November; the blizzard days gradually increased from the northwest to the southeast, the risklevel of blizzard disaster in Changzhi, Jincheng, Yangquan and Jinzhong were the highest, while that inYuncheng, southern Linfen, northern Lvliang and southwest Datong were the lowest. Compared with thehistorical disaster data and the blizzard disasters in last ten years in Shanxi, the comprehensive riskregionalization results were quite reasonable, and this study could provide scientific basis for the preventionand evaluation of the blizzard disaster in Shanxi Province.