区域城镇化与旅游业发展水平的关联机制研究——以江苏省为例

Related Mechanism for Regional Urbanization and Tourism Development Level——A case study of Jiangsu province

城镇化和旅游业发展是当今社会发展的两大热点,也是区域实现产业升级的重大举措,以江苏省为例分析旅游发展和城镇化现状和特征,并运用单位根检验、协整分析及VAR模型动态分析江苏省旅游业发展与城镇化之间的内在关联机制。VAR模型研究结果显示:脉冲响应函数表明旅游业发展与城镇化建设之间具有相互促进作用;方差分解研究说明江苏省城镇化建设对旅游业的影响比旅游业对城镇化建设的影响更大。以上研究结论可为江苏省城镇化建设和旅游业发展提供相关政策建议。

Urbanization and tourism are two major hot spots in social development as well as major measures for regions to achieve industrial upgrading. Taking Jiangsu province as a case study,this paper discusses the current situation and problems in its urban construction and tourism development,and dynamically measures and analyzes the related mechanism between urbanization and tourism development by means of unit root test,co- integration analysis and VAR model before exploring the order and coordination of urbanization system and tourism system. The VAR model research results show that the impulse response function indicates a mutual influence between urbanization level and tourism development level,and that the influence of urbanization on tourism development is stronger than vice verse. The research findings can be used as practical references for Jiangsu province.