易货贸易、现汇贸易与跨境贸易人民币结算——基于不完全信息动态博弈模型的分析

Barter Trade,Cash Trade and RMB Settlement in Cross-border Trade:An Analysis based on Incomplete Information Dynamic Game Model

近年来,国际金融危机爆发、局部地区局势紧张使易货贸易呈现复苏迹象,并借助互联网和电子商务的迅猛发展,易货贸易这种古老而原始的商品交换方式在当今发达的货币经济中依然发挥着作用,但因信息不对称产生的信任问题使易货贸易的资源配置效率无法与现汇贸易相提并论,易货贸易只能作为特定情况下现汇贸易的有益补充,在经济恢复常态后将被现汇贸易取代。现汇贸易在巩固开拓原有市场关系网络的同时可以适时推进贸易本币结算进程,这对跨境贸易人民币结算是有益启示。

With the great development of Internet and e- commerce,in response to global financial crisis,an old and primitive goods exchange pattern,i. e.,barter trade,has been still playing its indispensible role even in so developed monetary economy nowadays. However,this paper shows that the allocation efficiency of barter trade is not yet comparable to that of cash trade with the insufficient trust caused by information asymmetry. Yet barter trade is a necessary supplement for cash trade in specific circumstances. When the economy returns to normal,barter trade would again be replaced by cash trade. While cash trade is taking over and extending the existed market networks,it would timely promote home currency settlement,which provides implications for RMB settlement in cross- border trade.