区域经济增长不平衡与收入分配地区间差异——基于协整分析和Granger因果检验的实证分析

Unbalance of Regional Economic Growth and Gap of Income Distribution among Different Regions——An Empirical Analysis Based on Co-Integration Test and Granger Causality Test

1978年后,改革开放给中国经济发展注入了前所未有的活力,我国经济进入了30余年的高速增长期,居民收入水平和生活质量也有了明显提高,然而在全国经济高速增长、整体收入水平显著提高的同时,也出现了区域经济增长不均衡、收入差距显著拉大问题。区域经济增长与区域收入差距之间存在着事实性的相关关系。通过建立向量误差修正模型(VEC)探究区域经济增长不平衡和收入分配地区间差异的长期稳定关系与短期波动,并通过格兰杰因果关系检验研究表明,基于不同的差异指标得到的因果关系的方向完全相反。深入分析这一现象有助于揭示我国当前区域经济增长不平衡与收入分配地区间差异的深层次原因。

Since 1978,the reform and opening-up has injected unprecedented vitality to the rapid development of economic development in China. The economy has grown fast with high-speed for 30 years. The income level and quality of life have improved significantly. However,the regional economic growth is not balanced and the income gap are tremendously widened among regions at the same time. This is a factual correlation between regional economic growth and regional income gap. In this paper,a VEC model is established to distinguish the relationship between long-term stability and short-term fluctuations of unbalance of regional economic growth and income distribution gap. The Granger Causality test implies that the relationship is quite opposite based on different indicators. An in-depth analysis could reveal the underlying causes of the unbalance of inter-regional economic growth and income distribution gap in different regions.