中国三大经济圈可持续发展比较分析

Comparative Analysis of Sustainable Development of the Three Economic Circles of China

在建立中国三大经济圈可持续发展评价指标体系的基础上,层层深入地比较分析了2001~2012年的中国三大经济圈,并运用复合系统耦合度模型和HP滤波分析比较了三大经济圈的耦合协调性和系统稳定性。研究表明：三大经济圈的社会经济发展都建立在生态环境逐渐恶化的基础上,以京津冀最甚;研究时期内京津冀的可持续发展水平最低,长三角和珠三角间的差异较小;三大经济圈都始终处于极限发展阶段,＂十二五＂初期长三角的耦合度最高,且可持续发展系统的稳定性呈现为长三角〉珠三角〉京津冀的景象。

This paper firstly establishes the sustainable development assessment index system of the three economic circles of China and the coupling model of society-economy-environment compound system,and then it comparatively analyzed the three economic circles of China from 2001 to 2012. It also compares and analyzes the coupling coordination and system stability of the three economic circles on basis of the coupling model and filtering analysis. Results show that,the social and economic development are always based on the worsening ecological environment in some degree; the sustainable development level of Jing-Jin-Ji is the lowest of the three economic circles during study period,while the differences between Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta are not significance; all the three economic circles are always in the stage of＂utmost increasing phase＂,among which the coupling degree of the Yangtze River Delta is the highest at the initial stage of＂12th Five Year＂,and the comparative results for the stability of sustainable development system is＂Yangtze River Delta 〉 Pearl River Delta 〉 Jing-Jin-Ji＂.