丝绸之路经济带10省市全要素生产率的差异和收敛性分析

Difference and Convergence Analysis for Total Factor Productivity of 10 Provinces in the Silk Road Economic Belt

以丝绸之路经济带沿线10省市为研究对象,采用DEA-Malmquist法对各省份2001~2014年的全要素生产率进行测算比较,并分析了收敛性特征和影响因素。结果表明：10省市2001~2014年全要素生产率总体上为负增长,平均Malmquist指数为0.992,低于全国平均水平;与全国相比,10省市的优势在于规模效率变化,劣势在于技术变化;各省市全要素生产率存在显著差异,且受内外部环境的影响较大;10省市全要素生产率不存在σ收敛和绝对β收敛,但存在条件β收敛。最后,提出了增加人力资本投资、优化产业结构、构建安定和谐社会环境和注重质量效益等建议。

This paper measures and compares the total factor productivity of 10 provinces of China in the Silk Road Economic Belt from 2001 to 2014 by DEA-Malmquist method. And then,it analyzes its convergence and influencing factors. Results show that the overall total factor productivity growth of 10 provinces was negative from 2001 to 2014,and that average Malmquist index is 0. 992,which is below the national average. The advantage of 10 provinces lies in its scale efficiency change,while the disadvantage is technological change. There are significant differences in total factor productivity of provinces,which is easily influenced by the internal and external environments. Both σ-convergence and β-convergence were tested,but only conditional β-convergence of total factor productivity is strongly supported. Based on the above results and the analysis of influencing factors,it gives some suggestions,such as increasing human capital investment,optimizing the industrial structure,building up a stable and harmonious social environment and focusing on the quality and efficiency of economic growth.