南水北调中线水源地与郑州市受水区丰枯遭遇分析

Analysis of wetness-dryness encountering between water source and intake area in the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project in Zhengzhou city

南水北调中线是跨流域、长距离的大型引调水工程，其水源地与受水区水量的丰枯遭遇直接影响工程效益的发挥。以郑州市为例，分别采用游程理论和Copula函数方法计算了水源地与受水区的降水统计特征及丰枯遭遇特征，得出水源地和受水区不同遭遇组合的重现规律，即两地同步偏枯较其它类型的遭遇情况更易发生。因此，尽早规划调蓄工程和同枯期水资源调配方案，保障受水区的用水安全，这对郑州市水资源优化配置是非常必要的。

The Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project is a large cross-basin water diversion project with long distance, the rule of wetness-dryness encountering between water source and intake area has a direct impact on the benefit of the project. This paper took Zhengzhou city for example, using the runs-theory and Copula theory respectively to calculate the satistical property of rainfall and wetness-dryness encountering, then drew a rule of different encourtering groups between the two areas, that is simultaneous dryness is more likely to happen than other groups. Therefore,it isvery necessary to plan regulating reserviors and allocation scheme early on, which can guarantee the security of water use and optimize the allocation of water resources in Zhengzhou city.