贵州省霜冻天气的时空分布与气候变化特征

The Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Frost and Climate Change Characteristics in Guizhou Province

该文利用贵州省81个气象观测站点1961年7月—2015年6月逐日最低地面温度和霜的气象观测资料,采用线性趋势法、均值分步法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法对贵州省霜冻的时空分布及气候变化特征进行分析。结果表明:贵州省霜冻天气具有明显的地域特征,容易出现在高海拔地区及北部、东北部地区;近55 a来,贵州省霜冻日数呈减少趋势;省的西北部霜冻开始得较早,终止得较晚;南部边缘地区,开始得较晚,终止得较早;无霜冻期由西向东、向南逐渐延长;霜冻天气主要在10月—翌年4月出现;全省初霜冻日呈推迟趋势,终霜冻日呈提早的变化趋势,无霜冻期呈现延长的变化趋势;从年代际变化来看,初霜冻日期21世纪初发生突变,开始明显推迟,终霜冻日期上世纪70年代开始明显提早,无霜冻期在90年代开始明显延长。

Based on the minimum ground temperature and frost data from 81 meteorological stations of Guizhou Province from July 1961 to June 2015,the spatial and temporal distribution of frost and climate change characteristics in Guizhou Province were analyzed with the linear-trend method,mean value distribution approach,and mutation test method. The results show that the frost weather had apparent regional differences. The frost weather was inclined to appear in high altitude areas as well as Northern regions and East-Northern regions. Frost days occurred in recent 55 years with a decline trend in Guizhou Province. The frost in the west-northern regions occurred early and ended up late. The frost in the southern marginal areas came late and ended up early. The frost-free period prolonged gradually from the West to the East and South. The frost weather appeared mainly from October of the previous year to April of the next year. Guizhou first frost date had a delaying trend while the last frost date had an advancing trend,and the frost-free period presented prolonged tendency. Seen from changes in recent years,the first frost date had a mutation in early 21 st century and it was obviously postponed. The last frost date was obviously advanced in the 1970 s. The frost-free period was obviously prolonged in the 1990 s.