基于IGU钟产品的钟差预报影响因素分析

Analyzing Influence Factors for Satellite Clock Bias Prediction Based on IGU Clock Products

建立基于钟差预报多项式模型的多项式模型加周期项、多项式模型与灰色模型组合的钟差预报改进模型,同时考虑起始偏差改正的影响。利用IGS超快速产品的实测钟差(IGUO)数据进行建模预报,将预报结果与IGS超快速产品的预报钟差(IGU-P)进行比较,分析各模型的预报效果及其与原子钟类型和预报时间段的关系,同时分析钟漂、周期误差、随机误差以及系统误差对预报结果的影响。

This paper builds the polynomial model with periodic term, the combination of polynomial model and grey model based on polynomial model of satellite clock bias （SCB） prediction, with the influence of initial deviation correction considered. It uses the IGS ultra-rapid observed （IGU-0） clock products to model and predict, and compares the results with the IGS ultra-rapid predicted （IGU-P） clock products. The predictive effect of various models is analyzed, as well as their rela- tionship with atomic clock type and predict period. Last, the influence of the clock drift, periodic errors, random errors and systematic errors for SCB prediction are analyzed.