摘要
利用VENSIM软件构建系统动力学模型,对中国电力行业碳排放进行仿真模拟。模型设置了基准情景、低碳情景、超低碳情景3种情景:并分别基于3种不同情景对2005—2030年电力行业碳排放量进行模拟与预测,在此基础上,对不同减排效果进行了比较和评价。结果显示研究和开发低碳技术、调整电源结构和产业结构都将有助于中国电力行业的低碳发展。
Based on the VENSIM software,system dynamics model is set up to simulate China carbon emission in electric power industry.Three kinds of scenarios are set,i.e.basic scenario,low-carbon scenario,enhance low-carbon scenario.With the forecast of total amount of carbon emission in electric power industry under each scenario from 2005-2030,effects of different scenarios are compared and evaluated.The result shows that the research and development of low-carbon technology,adjustment of the power source structure and industry structure will be contribute to the development of China electric power industry.
出处
《陕西电力》
2016年第6期29-32,58,共5页
Shanxi Electric Power
关键词
电力行业碳排放
系统动力学
低碳技术
电源结构
power industry carbon emissions
system dynamics
low-carbon technology
structure of power source
