基于图模型方法的我国二氧化碳排放的EKC曲线检验及影响因素分析

The Inspection of EKC Hypothesis of Carbon Dioxide Emission and Its Affecting Factors in China——Based on Graphical Models

较为精确地对中国大陆地区29个省份的二氧化碳排放量进行测算,通过图模型方法分析我国二氧化碳的EKC曲线及主要影响因素,且利用贝叶斯平均模型(BACE)方法检验其稳健性。实证研究表明,我国二氧化碳曲线呈倒"U"型,主要影响因素包括经济发展水平、产业结构、能源利用率和城市化等,并指出提升经济发展质量、优化产业结构和提高能源利用率等是实现我国节能减排的重要举措。

CO2 emissions of 29 provinces in China are accurately calculated in this article. Whatinfluences carbon dioxide emissions are also investigated by the Gaussian graphical models. The robustis tested by the Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates （BACE）. Results indicate that the hypothesis ofenvironmental Kuznets Curve is established according to the inverted U-shaped relationship that lingersbetween the level of economic development and CO2 emissions. Significant influence has been proved byenergy efficiency, industry structure,urbanization and foreign direct investment. Thus, the paper pointsout that the important measures to realize CO2 emission reduction policies in China are improving thequality of economic development, optimizing industrial structure, and improving energy efficiency andenhancing the urbanization control.