城市地铁系统脆弱性影响因素研究

Research on factors affecting vulnerability of subway system

为探究地铁系统脆弱因子之间的关系,提升地铁系统的安全性,通过文献调研和专家访谈,收集地铁系统脆弱性的影响因素,运用解释结构模型(ISM)明确脆弱因子间的递阶层次结构,借助交叉影响矩阵相乘法(MICMAC)构建驱动力—依赖度象限图,将脆弱因子分为自发、依赖、联动和独立4类。研究结果表明,地铁系统脆弱因子可以划分为3个层次,其中规章制度和安全投入是最底层脆弱因子,属于独立因素;人员的安全意识、人员的身心状态和运营环境是中间层脆弱因子,属于联动类因素;路网拓扑结构、设备设施的关联性和设备设施的性能是最上层脆弱因子,属于自发类因素;设备设施的状态和应急处置效率也处于最上层,但属于依赖类因素。

With the increasing research on the safety of infrastructure in terms of vulnerability,it is necessary to take this vulnerability concept into account when analyzing the subway system. Instead of concentrating on a portion of subway system,data on factors influencing subway system vulnerability were collected from a holistic perspective. Based on the integrated ISM and MICMAC methods,a hierarchical structure and a drivingdependence graph which are used to interpret how these factors impact the subway system were generated. The analysis suggests that network topology,equipment interdependency,equipment condition,and emergency response efficiency are surface factors in the hierarchical structure,that safety investment,regulations,and rules are root factors and that more attention should be paid to these root factors.