水电厂生产环境安全性态演化的集对分析方法

SPA of safety state evolution of hydropower station production environment

为动态评价水电厂生产环境安全性态,综合运用集对分析(SPA)和马尔科夫链,建立集状态评价和趋势分析于一体的水电厂生产环境安全性态演化分析方法。首先,引入安全状态联系度,描述水电厂生产环境的不确定性,按照均分原则划分安全状态等级;然后,根据安全状态联系度确定集对势和悲观势,建立包含安全状态等级、集对势、悲观势等3个参数的三元组趋势判别模型,分析生产环境的安全性态发展趋势;最后,利用马尔科夫链的遍历性,计算得出安全性态演化矩阵,得到稳定状态联系度,预测水电厂生产环境的最终稳态安全水平。将该分析方法用于国内某水电厂。结果表明:根据该水电厂2009—2014年的生产环境安全状况,预测其2015年的生产环境安全状况虽趋向好转,但仍需要整改。经过持续改进,该水电厂生产环境将演化为稳定的安全性态。

The paper was aimed at developing comprehensive method for evaluating dynamically hydropower production safety state,a method for both state assessment and trend analysis,based on SPA and Markov chain. Firstly,safety status contact degree was introduced to describe the uncertainty of hydropower production environment. Safety status levels were divided in accordance with the ＂average principle＂. Secondly,the set of potential and pessimistic potential were determined in accordance with the safety state contact degree. A 3-variable model was created to analyze state evolution trends of production environment. It consists of three parameters,personnel safety status levels,set pair potential,and pessimistic potential. Finally,the safety state evolution matrix was inferred by means of ergodicity of Markov chain and the steady-state contact was calculated. The method was applied to a certain hydropower station in China. The results show that the station＇s production environment has been improved greatiy,but needs to be improved steadlly.