基于VEC模型的社会保障支出就业效应

Employment Effect of Social Security Expenditure Based on VEC Model

在经济新常态背景下,研究社会保障支出对就业产生的影响,为当前存在的就业问题提供可行的解决思路.基于柯布-道格拉斯生产函数模型,引入社会保障支出,通过建立向量误差修正(VEC)模型,对我国社会保障支出对就业的影响机制进行分析.研究表明:长期来看社会保障支出与就业量之间存在正相关关系;就业水平、社会保障支出、资本投入、技术进步和工资水平之间存在长期协整关系.

Under the background of economic new normal, the effect of social security expenditure on employment was studied, which can provide feasible solutions for current employment problems. Based on Cobb-Douglass function model, social security expenditure was introduced, and the vector error correction（VEC） model was built to analyse the influence mechanism of social security expenditure on employment. Research shows that there is a positive correlation between social security expenditure and employment in the long-term, and there is a long-term co-integration relationship between variables of employment level, social security expenditure, capital investment, technical progress and wage level.