基于CA-Markov模型的土地利用/覆盖变化模拟

Simulation of Land Use / Cover Variation Based on the CA-Markov Model

研究以重庆市2005年和2010年土地利用/覆盖数据为基础,采用CA-Markov模型进行2020年土地利用/覆盖变化模拟。研究对采用CA-Markov模型模拟重庆市土地利用/覆盖变化需要的转移概率矩阵、适宜性图集、模型参数等进行确定。研究首先利用CA-Markov模型对2010年土地利用/覆盖情况进行模拟,并以2010年的土地利用现状数据进行验证得到模拟精度为85.15%,达到了模拟的精度要求。然后对2020年重庆市土地利用/覆盖变化进行模拟,结果发现人工用地、其他用地、湿地、草地、林地和耕地的占比分别为1.96%、0.56%、1.99%、2.53%、55.42%和37.55%,人工用地和湿地增加速度较快,增加比例达到13.95%和10.86%,主要为林地、草地和其他用地转换。模拟结果能够准确反映重庆市土地利用/覆盖变化的趋势,可在一定程度上为重庆市土地利用布局和可持续发展策略的制定提供参考。

Based on the land use / cover data of Chongqing city in 2005 and 2010,this study used the CA-Markov model to predict land use / cover variation in 2020. This study determined some relevant parameters,such as transition-probability matrix,suitability atlas and model parameters,which were required by using CA-Markov model to simulate the land use / cover variation in Chongqing city. Firstly,the CA-Markov model was used to simulate the current situation of land use / cover in 2010 and verify the accuracy of results based on the actual land use data of 2010. The simulation accuracy reached 85. 15%,which met the required simulation accuracy. Then,the land use / cover variation in Chongqing city in 2020 was simulated. The results showed that the artificial land,other land,wetland,grassland,woodland and arable land accounted for 1. 96%,0. 56%,1. 99%,2. 53%,55. 42% and 37. 55%,respectively. The artificial land and wetland increased by 13. 95% and 10. 86%,respectively,which were faster than the others,and they were mainly transformed from woodland,grassland and other land. The simulation results can accurately reflect the trend of land use / cover variation in Chongqing city,and also provide reference for Chongqing＇s land use layout and sustainable development strategy.