基于CMS模型的中国蜂蜜进口增长因素分解

Factorial Decomposition of China 's Honey Import Growth Based on CMS Model

加入世界贸易组织以来,中国蜂蜜进口呈现增长速度快、量价齐升、市场集中度日益提高等特征。基于修正后的恒定市场份额模型的因素分解研究表明:2001—2014年间中国蜂蜜进口的增长主要源于市场规模效应、市场分布效应以及竞争力效应,总体而言,竞争力效应的贡献率最大。而适度把握进口节奏、促进进口来源地多元化则是化解中国蜂蜜进口贸易中的市场风险,促进蜂蜜进口贸易持续、健康发展的重要路径。

There are some distinct characteristics for China＇s honey import growth after entering World Trade Organization（ WTO） ： expanding quantity,growing volume and price,and increasing market concentration. Our analysis,using modified Constant Market Share Model,reveals that there are market size effect,market distribution effect,and competitive effect for the growth of China＇s honey import from 2001 to 2014.However,quick enhancement of China＇s honey international competitiveness is the most important factor for the growth of China＇s honey import. Therefore,slightly reducing the import volume and improving the market structure are important measures to handle the market risk of China＇s honey import and ensure its sustained and healthy development.