晋北地区1986～2010年土地利用/覆被变化的驱动力

Quantitative analysis on driving forces of land use/cover change in north Shanxi province during 1986～2010

为定量研究不同时期区域土地利用变化的不同驱动特征,以地处农牧交错带的晋北地区为例,采用非监督分类与人工目视解译相结合的方法,获取研究区1986~2010年间的土地利用/覆被变化（LUCC）状况,采用典范对应分析（CCA）方法定量分析了不同阶段 LUCC 的自然与人为驱动特征。结果表明：1）CCA 在分析长时期序列 LUCC 驱动力上有较好的解释力,CCA 排序可以很好地提取 LUCC 与自然、人为因素之间的关系,反映不同时期土地利用变化受到的驱动作用；2）研究区土地利用类型以耕地、草地、林地为主,土地利用变化类型以耕地与草地、林地与草地之间的互相转移为主；3）从不同时期 LUCC 的驱动因子来看,人口密度、人均国内生产总值（GDP）、降水、坡度和高程是研究区各时期 LUCC 的主要驱动力；研究区在1986~1995年间 LUCC 的主要驱动力来自于人口增长和经济发展的需求,而随着时间的推进,坡度和高程等地形因素的驱动作用也愈来愈重要；4）从不同地类变化的驱动因子来看,耕地、草地等地类向居民用地、工矿用地转移的主要驱动力是人口和经济的发展；而林地,草地等土地覆被类型之间的转移主要受到坡度,高程和降水等自然因素的驱动。

The land use pattern in a certain region in different periods was usually driven by natural, social, and economical factors. The driving mechanisms varied in different periods. North Shanxi province, located in the farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China, was chosen as the research area. The objectives of this study were to analyze the land use/cover change （LUCC） pattern in north Shanxi province, and to estimate the different driving mechanisms of the LUCC in different historical periods. A comprehensive method combining the unsupervised classification and the visual interpretation was used to extract the LUCC information in the study area from 1986 to 2010. The canonical correspondence analysis was employed to assess the natural and anthropogenic driving forces of the LUCC. The results indicated that cropland, grassland, and woodland were major land use types in the whole investigation period. Main land-use transferring types included the interconversions between grassland and cropland, as well as woodland and grassland. Population density, per capita gross domestic product （GDP）, precipitation, slope, and elevation were the major driving forces of the LUCC. In 1986~1995, the driving forces of the LUCC were mainly from the demands of the population growth and the economy development. Later, the driving forces from the topographical elements such as elevation and slope became more and more important. The economic development and population growth promote the transitions from grassland and cropland to residential land and industrial land. Meanwhile, the conversions between grassland and woodland are mainly driven by natural factors such as slope, elevation, and precipitation.