经济增长、房价水平与地方债规模

Economic Growth, Housing Prices and Scale of Local Government Debt

经济增长、房价水平对地方债规模有重要的影响。研究结果表明:经济增长对地方债规模产生显著的负向影响,经济增长使地方政府财政盈余增加,提高了债务承受能力,降低举债规模;房价水平对地方债规模产生显著的正向影响,由于地方政府通过土地抵押获得银行贷款和以土地出让收益为担保发行城投债,高房价必然引致高地价,土地价值越高,地方政府越容易获得债务收入,间接导致债务规模的上升。且不同地区存在区域性差异,这可能与各地区的市场发育程度、吸引要素流入能力有关。建议地方政府应谨慎举债来促进经济发展,避免债务的急剧扩张;同时充分认识到房价与债务规模的"正反馈"效果,防控房地产市场泡沫风险可能引发的债务危机;因地制宜根据地区债务的实际用途安排新增债务,不可盲目照搬其他地区的经验,更不能"一刀切"。

Economic growth and housing prices wield significant influence on the scale of local government debt. The findings of our study are as follows： economic growth has significant negative effect on the scale of local government debt scale, has increased fiscal surplus of local governments, improved their capacity to sustain debt, and reduced debt scale; housing prices have significant positive impact on the scale of local government debt as local governments get loans through land mortgage and issue quasi-municipal bond on the basis of land transfer revenues; high housing prices certainly lead to high land prices; the higher the land prices, the easier for the government to get debt income, which indirectly leads to bigger debt. Besides, situations vary greatly in different regions, which may be related to the market development, and ability to attract elements in different regions. Thus, it is suggested that the local government should be cautious to leverage to promote economic development, and avoid rapid debt expansion. At the same time, we need to fully understand the positive feedback between housing prices and debt scale, and prevent and control debt crisis which may be triggered by the bubbles in real estate market. Local governments should arrange new debts according to the practical purpose of regional debts, and cannot blindly copy the experience of other regions, and certainly not take a ＂one size fits all＂ approach.