基于包容性检验的江苏省第三产业从业人数组合预测

Optimal Weighted Combined Forecasting of Third Industry Practitioners in Jiangsu Province Based on Encompassing Tests

利用包容性检验对6种单项预测方法进行分析,根据各单项模型的预测精度优劣进行排序,逐步进行包容性检验和组合,经过包容性检验后得到的单项模型进行最优加权组合.利用以上方法和1990-2013年江苏省第三产业从业人数数据,建立了组合预测模型,得到相对误差不超过1%的江苏省"十三五"期间第三产业人数预测值.

The 6 forecasting methods are analyzed by encompassing tests,and sorted by the prediction accuracy of each individual model.We make encompassing tests progressively and combine forecasting methods after encompassing tests by the optimal weighted method.Using this method and the data of third industry practitioners in Jiangsu province from 1990 to 2013,we establish a combine combined forecasting methods and forecast the third industry practitioners during the thirteenth five-year development planning with the Relative error no more than 1%.