“异质性难题”化解与碳排放EKC再检验——基于门限回归的国别分组研究

Resolution of “the Heterogeneity Difficulty” and Re-verification of the Carbon Emission EKC——Based on the Country Grouping Test under the Threshold Regression

本文在解释碳排放环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)"异质性难题"产生原因的基础上,对"异质性难题"可能带来的影响进行了理论分析,并围绕"异质性难题"的化解和碳排放EKC的再检验提出了理论假设。在传统碳排放EKC检验模型基础上,结合"污染天堂假说"(PHH),引入贸易开放因素,基于"发展水平"和"发展结构"两个维度,采用门限回归方法对82个国家进行分组研究,以化解碳排放EKC研究中的"异质性难题"。在实证检验中,利用协整检验确定二次项检验为优先检验方程,以三次项检验作为补充检验,检验碳排放EKC"异质性难题"的化解效果与碳排放EKC的异化可能性,分析了贸易开放和工业革命对碳排放EKC的影响,验证了PHH的存在性。国际贸易实现了碳排放转移,并导致不同的碳排放增长速率;工业比重上升显著提高了碳排放,但新工业革命将有力推动经济发展摆脱制造业与碳排放的"双增"困境。碳排放EKC"异质性难题"的化解,对于准确把握经济增长与碳排放的关系、制定科学合理的国际碳排放核算体系和碳排放控制政策具有重要意义。

Based on some explanations for presence of ＂the heterogeneity difficulty＂ in the research of the carbon emission EKC, some theoretical analyses is given on consequences of ＂the heterogeneity difficulty＂ while some theoretical hypotheses are put forward concerning the resolution and verification of ＂the heterogeneity difficulty＂. Based on the traditional carbon emission EKC test model, considering the pollution haven hypothesis （PHH）, introducing the trade openness, 82 countries are grouped using the ＂development level＂ and ＂development structure＂ by the threshold regression method to overcome ＂the heterogeneity difficulty＂. In the part of empirical test, the co-integration test proves that quadratic term is the preferred equation and cubic term is the supplemental test to test the effect of the resolution of ＂the heterogeneity difficulty＂ and the possibility of the variation of carbon emission EKC. Meanwhile, an analysis is given concerning the consequence of the trade openness and the industrial revolution and it is verified that the PHH exists. Trade openness leads to international transfer of the carbon emission and different carbon growth rate. Industrialization significantly increased the carbon emission, while the arrival of the new industrial revolution will vigorously promote the economy out of the dilemma that the manufacturing and carbon emission increases together. The resolution of ＂the heterogeneity difficulty＂ in the carbon emission EKC means a lot to us in the process of controlling the relationship between economic development and carbon emission correctly and making scientific and rational policies for carbon emission control.