经济新常态下CPI与PPI长期背离现象分析

Research on the Phenomenon of Long-term Deviation of CPI and PPI under the New Economic Norm

进入经济新常态以来,CPI与PPI出现了长期背离现象,使得传统财政政策与货币政策的实施受到极大限制,深入研究二者背离原因对宏观调控政策的制定意义重大。文章对国内外相关文献梳理,并从二者各自的价格传递角度研究二者背离原因。研究表明:CPI与PPI之间传导趋势变弱是二者相互背离的前提;劳动力成本上升是维持CPI为正的主要动力;国际大宗商品价格下跌是PPI持续为负的重要原因;翘尾因素的存在使得二者"剪刀差"缺口进一步加大。在结构性财政政策和货币政策基础上,推动供给侧结构性改革和采用定向宏观调控手段,是解决问题的关键。

Since the New Economic Norm,the phenomenon of long-term deviation between the CPI and PPI,which restricted the implementation of the traditional fiscal policy and monetary policy greatly.Research on reasons of the departure of CPI and PPI is of great significance for formulating macro-control policy.After sorting out the relevant literature,this paper will study the reasons of deviation in the perspective of the price transmission.The research shows that the weak conduction tendency between CPI and PPI is the premise for the two to deviate from each other;Rising labor costs are the main driving force for the maintenance of CPI;The decline in international commodity prices is an important reason for the continuing negative PPI;The tail-raising factor widens the gap between two＂price scissors＂.On the basis of structural fiscal policy and monetary policy,it is the key to solve the problem to promote the structural reform of the supply side and the use of directional macro-control means.