我国信息技术业上市公司财务预警模型研究

Research on the Financial Early-warning of Chinese Information Technology Industry

本文以2009—2014年间我国信息技术业A股上市公司为样本,选择了财务预警指标,并利用Logistic回归分析构建了财务预警模型。研究发现,偿债能力、盈利能力、现金流量能力、营运能力以及成长能力是我国信息技术业上市公司的财务预警指标体系的主要构成,财务预警模型整体预测准确率可达85.7%。本研究的财务预警模型能有效地控制和防止信息技术业财务危机的发生,为企业监管决策提供可靠依据。

Based on the information technology industry in China between 2009 and 2014 a-share listed companies as samples,choose the financial early warning indicators,and by using Logistic regression analysis to build the financial early warning model.The study found that debt paying ability,profitability,cash flow ability,operating ability and growth ability are the main component of the financial early warning index system of listing corporation in information technology industry in China;the overall prediction accuracy of the financial early warning model is up to 85.7%.The financial earlywarning model of this study can effectively control and prevent the occurrence of the financial crisis of the information technology industry,and provide a reliable basis for the decision-making of the enterprise.