负利率时代:政策创新与宏观风险被引量：17

Era of Negative Interest Rate: Policy Innovation and Macroeconomic Risks

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摘要目前,丹麦、欧元区、瑞士、瑞典和日本等多国央行都已实施负利率政策。本文在分析负利率政策原因的基础上,指出以色列、捷克、加拿大和挪威等国也可能实施负利率。虽然囤积现金形成了对负利率政策的制约,但央行通过实施分级利率等方式仍有进一步降息的空间。负利率政策推动了存贷款利率和收益率曲线的下行,但对通胀和汇率的影响不一。本文认为,负利率常态化面临利率传导有效性降低、债券市场流动性下降、银行利润空间收窄、金融市场分割和动荡加剧等风险。全球负利率环境也令中国货币政策面临挑战,但对海外投资而言可能是利好消息。 The euro zone, Denmark, Switzerland, Sweden and Japan have all adopted a negative interestrate policy. This article analyzes the causes of the policy and expects Israel, the CzechRepublic, Canada and Norway to possibly adopt the same policy. Although cash hoardinglimits the extent of the negative interest rate policy, the central banks can resort to the tieredinterest rate scheme to further cut the rates. The negative interest rate policy drags down thedeposit and lending rates and the yield curve, but has varied impacts on inflation and exchangerate. The author believes that the normalization of negative interest rates could bring such risksas less effective interest rate transmission, falling bond market liquidity, narrowing profitmargins of banks, and more segmented' and volatile financial markets. As more countries areadopting negative interest rates, Chinas monetary policymakers are facing pressure to followsuit, but it could facilitate overseas investment.

作者王宇哲

机构地区清华大学公共管理学院公共经济、金融与治理研究中心

出处《国际经济评论》 CSSCI 北大核心 2016年第4期115-127,7,共13页 International Economic Review

关键词负利率现金囤积分级利率金融风险

分类号 F821.0 [经济管理—财政学]

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参考文献13

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