中国CPI、PPI的分化与通缩

CPI, PPI Diversion and Deflation

自2012年3月以来,中国的消费者价格指数(CPI)、生产者价格指数(PPI)一直保持一正一负的状态,其走势分化的时间之长、缺口之大都实属罕见。这种不同物价指数的走势分化也使得经济学家在对未来经济走向的判断和政策建议上出现了明显分歧。但事实上,类似现象在其他一些发达国家并不乏先例。本文整理了一些典型"通缩"期的CPI、PPI表现,以及文献中对于度量通胀指标的评价,并结合CPI的先导指标预测,认为当前中国的情况更接近于通货紧缩。基于这一判断,我们进一步分析了CPI、PPI走势对当前"债务-通缩"循环的影响。本文认为CPI、PPI一正一负的组合不仅不会扭转对于当前通缩的判断,反而会恶化本轮"债务-通缩"循环。因此政府有必要针对PPI持续下行的现象,执行反通缩的货币、财政政策。

Since March 2012, China has registered positive CPI growth but its PPI reading has always inthe negative territory. It is rare that the two indicators have diverged so significantly and forsuch a long time, leading to disputes among economists over the future macroeconomic trendand policy suggestions. In this article, it is pointed out that similar divergences have been seenin some developed countries. By summarizing some typical CPI and PPI movements duringdeflationary cycles, sorting out methods for measuring inflation, and taking into account someleading indicators for CPI, the author holds that China is more possibly trapped in deflation.Based on such a judgment, the author analyzes the impact of the current CPI and PPImovements on the current debt-deflation cycle. It is concluded that despite the divergence ofthe CPI and PPI trends, China is for sure trapped in deflation; worse, the divergence willworsen the debt-deflation cycle. As a result, the authorities should adopt a counter-deflationmonetary and fiscal policy stance to tackle the problem of weakening PPI.