企业生命周期阶段、销售操控与未来业绩

Corporate Life Cycle Stages,Sales Manipulation,and Future Performance

基于公司层面的生命周期阶段变量,结合Roychowdhury(2006)提出的销售操控估计方法,本文检验生命周期不同阶段下公司销售操控程度及其经济后果是否存在差异。结果表明:(1)销售操控程度存在显著的生命周期效应,在生命周期各阶段呈现出U型分布:导入期和衰退期的销售操控程度最高,淘汰期和增长期次之,成熟期最低。(2)销售操控的经济后果也存在显著的生命周期效应,同样呈现出U型分布:导入期和衰退期销售操控对未来业绩的负面影响最小,淘汰期和增长期次之,成熟期的负面影响最大。本文的研究结论不仅提供了销售操控影响因素和经济后果方面的经验证据,而且对于透析企业生命周期的作用机理具有重要的实践意义。

Based on the indicators of corporate life cycle and using the method of sales manipulation estimate put forward by Roychowdhury （2006） , this paper studies the degree of sales manipulation and its economic consequences at different stages of firms＇ life cycle. The results suggest that： （ 1 ） Sales manipulation exhibits significant life cycle effects and shows a U- shaped distribution： the degree of sales manipulation is highest during introduction and decline periods, less during phase-out and growth periods and lowest during mature period. （2） Economic consequences of sales manipulation also exhibit significant life cycle effects and show a U-shaped distribution： the negative effect on future performance is least significant during introduction and decline periods, less significant during phase-out and growth periods and most significant during mature period. This study not only provides new evidence on determinants of sales manipulation and its economic consequences, but also has important practical implications for understanding the mechanism of firms＇ life cycle.