环境规制是否改善了北京市的空气质量——基于合成控制法的研究

Did Environmental Regulation Improve Air Quality in Beijing?——Based on the Synthetic Control Method

本文研究环境规制政策是否具有改善空气质量的长期效应,以每年污染天数作为空气污染程度的指标,通过使用比较案例研究中最新出现的"合成控制法",评估了2008年北京举办奥运会对北京空气质量的影响。研究发现,2008年之后北京空气质量仅在短暂时间内得到了改善,2008-2010年平均每年空气污染天数减少了25天,但在2010年之后,环境政策对北京空气改善作用逐渐消失。此外,作为空气污染最为严重的冬季,北京市冬季空气质量没有明显改善。最后,本文从中国长期以来经济增长方式、地方官员考核方式和中国地方环境政治的角度,分析了环境政策不具有改善空气质量长期效应的原因。

This paper uses the synthetic Control Method to estimate the impact of the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games on Beijing＇s air quality in this paper. The results show that Beijing＇s air quality only significantly improved after 2008 ： the average annual air pollution days were reduced by 25 days in the years of 2008 - 2010. But after 2010, these effects disappeared grad- ually. Furthermore, in winter, the most polluted season in Beijing, the air quality did not show any significant improvement. Finally, from the perspectives of China＇s long-term economic growth pattern, local official evaluation mode and China＇s local environmental politics, this paper analyzes the reason why the environmental policies can＇t have a lasting effect on the improve- ment of the air quality.