人口城镇化质量、消费扩大升级与中国经济增长

Quality of Population Urbanization,Expansion and Upgrading of Consumption and Economic Growth

本文在研究人口城镇化质量、消费扩大升级对经济增长作用机理的基础上,基于1978-2014年相关数据,对人口城镇化质量的消费需求、消费结构效应及消费需求传导下人口城镇化质量对经济增长的效应分别进行实证分析。研究结果发现,人口城镇化质量对消费需求扩大具有正向影响,但受制于消费环境等因素,这一作用效应并非完全显著;人口城镇化质量具备提升消费结构的基础,关键在于释放前期累积的负面效应;人口城镇化质量与经济增长基本形成一个相互作用的动态系统,存在通过消费传导实现经济增长的路径,但受制于过去粗放外延型的城镇化发展模式,这种正向传导机制发生扭曲,正向促进作用逐渐被负面影响替代。

New-type urbanization acts as the power to increase the demand and promote sustainable economic development and the quality of population urbanization is the core content of urbanization. Based on the mechanism between the quality of population urbanization, consumption and economic growth, we conducted empirical study about the effect of consumer demand and consumption structure as well as the effect of quality of population urbanization on economic growth through trans- mission mechanism of consumption, using the datum from 1978 to 2014. The result shows that the quality of population urban- ization does have a positive effect on growth, yet the effect does not totally conform with significance test because of expense environment and so on. Secondly, the quality of population urbanization can upgrade consumption structure as long as we release early accumulation of negative effects. Thirdly, the quality of population urbanization and economic growth has formed a dynamic system, also it has been proved there is transmission mechanism which can effect economic growth, yet the positive effect is being replaced by negative effect because of the former extensive pattern of urbanization.